Forget about the 10-X programmer. I think we’re in a time where AI coding assistants can make you much better than that.
Even if you think I’m crazy, I don’t think it’s a stretch that some programmers, particularly less experienced ones, will get a big relative boost compared to themselves without AI. Meaning, they could become 10x better using Cursor than they would be if they didn’t use AI at all.
The norm is less for experienced devs. I think I’m getting about a 2x or 3x improvement for my most AI-amenable tasks. But when I have to do things on projects where I don’t know the language ecosystem as well, it’s much more. So, it’s less about overall skill, and more about familiarity. As long as you know enough to write good prompts, you get more of a multiple the less you know. For example, for my main project, I might save an hour on a 4-hour task, but a junior dev might save days on that same task. Even if I finish it faster this time, they are still going to improve on that same kind of task until we’re about the same.
But, I also think it’s possible to get very high objective, absolute multipliers against all unassisted programmers with projects that are not even worth trying without the AI assistance.
I’ve started calling this Infinity-X programming. I’m talking about projects where it would take weeks for a programmer to complete, but no one is sure that it’s worth the time or cost. Using tools like Cursor and Replit, I’ve seen instances where a person with some programming ability (but not enough to program unassisted) do it on the side, working on it for fun just because they want to. They get somewhere fast, and now we might approve more work because we can see the value and it feels tractable. I’ve seen this happen a few times in my network lately.
It’s not just “non-programmers”. I’m also seeing this among my very experienced programmer colleagues. They are trying very ambitious side-projects that would be way too hard to do alone. They wouldn’t have even tried. But, now, with AI, they can make a lot of progress right away, and that progress spurs them on to do even more.
Without AI, these bigger projects would be too much of a slog, with too many yak-shaving expeditions, and lots of boring boilerplate and bookkeeping tasks. But, with AI, you get to stay in the zone and have fun, making steady progress the whole way. It makes very big things feel like small things. This is what it feels like to approach infinity.